ARIMA
ARIMA is one of the statistical analyses applied automatically in MerQur. This page illustrates — on a Architecture, Planning & Design sample dataset — how the analysis is run, what the MerQur output looks like, and how the result is reported in APA 7 format.
🎯 What is it for?
ARIMA automatically applies in the background all the assumption checks required for the relevant data type (normality, homogeneity of variance, etc.) and presents the results with a clear table and chart. Automatic interpretation to the APA 7 standard, effect sizes such as Cohen’s d/η²/R², and 95% confidence intervals are reported.
📌 When is it used?
- Statistical analysis of measurements in the Architecture, Planning & Design domain
- To produce APA 7-compatible result tables for academic publications
- Hypothesis testing and decision-making processes
- Undergraduate / master’s / PhD theses after the appropriate method has been selected
📐 Assumptions
- Appropriate scale — Variables must be at the measurement level required by the analysis (nominal/ordinal/interval/ratio)
- Independent observations — Observations must come from individuals independent of one another
- Sufficient sample size — The minimum n requirement for the analysis must be met
- Outlier check — Outliers must be detected and evaluated
If assumptions are violated, MerQur automatically suggests a non-parametric or robust alternative.
🛠 How to do it in MerQur
Load the data. Select the sample file from File → Open. MerQur auto-detects column types.
Select the analysis. From the left side select ARIMA.
Panel assignments (form fields in the program):
- Tarih sutunu:
tarih - Value Column:
aylik_butce_TL - AR(p):
1 - I(d):
0 - MA(q):
1 - Tahmin adimi:
12
Optional settings. Effect size ✓ · 95% confidence interval ✓ · Assumption checks (automatic).
▶ Run — click the button. Results are produced automatically as a table + chart.
📄 Export to Word. APA 7-formatted report with italic statistical symbols.
📊 Sample Dataset — Architecture, Planning & Design
ℹ Note: The scenario, MerQur output and interpretation below were produced by actually running the real example dataset in MerQur. Numeric results on your own data will differ; the goal is to show how the analysis is set up and interpreted end-to-end.
🎬 Example File
This analysis is demonstrated on the following example dataset for Architecture, Planning & Design:
Peyzaj_Mimarligi/96_arima_monthly_budget.xlsx
🎬 Scenario
We model the monthly park budget with ARIMA and forecast the future.
⚙️ Variable Selection
- Date: date | Value: monthly_budget_TL
Data Preview (First 5 Rows)
| date | monthly_budget_TL |
|---|---|
| 2014-01-01 00:00:00 | 60043 |
| 2014-02-01 00:00:00 | 59695 |
| 2014-03-01 00:00:00 | 62080 |
| 2014-04-01 00:00:00 | 64601 |
| 2014-05-01 00:00:00 | 70174 |
n = 120 · Columns: date, monthly_budget_TL
📈 MerQur Output
💬 Interpretation
We fitted an ARIMA model to a monthly park maintenance/management budget series and forecast the future. ARIMA combines the series’ own past values (AR), past errors (MA) and differencing (I, to make it stationary). With AIC = 2439 the best model was selected. Forecasts rest on the observed trend and seasonal autocorrelation structure and come with an uncertainty band. Budget forecasting matters for landscape management: anticipating future maintenance/renewal spending enables financial planning and resource allocation. ARIMA is the classic forecasting method for financial/management series with seasonality and trend.
⚠ Common Mistakes
- Misidentifying the data type (e.g., loading a categorical variable as numeric)
- Skipping assumption checks and going straight to the p-value
- Failing to report effect size — APA 7 requires both p and effect size
- Failing to apply a Type I error correction (Bonferroni/Tukey) in multiple comparisons
- Not switching to a non-parametric alternative when n is insufficient
📹 Video Walkthrough
Watch the video below for an end-to-end walkthrough of this analysis on a Architecture, Planning & Design file.
▶ ARIMA — video walkthrough
This section is part of the Zaman Serisi Analizi video (6 analyses in one video). The link below jumps straight to 3:07, where this analysis begins. Narration is in Turkish.
🎓 Education Sciences · 🧪 Natural Sciences & Mathematics · ⚙ Engineering · 🏥 Health Sciences · 📊 Social, Humanities & Admin Sciences · 🏃 Sport Sciences · 🌾 Agriculture, Forestry & Aquatic
📚 If You Used This Analysis, Cite MerQur
If you performed this analysis using MerQur in a scientific study, please use the citation below as part of your academic citation obligations (APA 7):
Örücü, Ö. K. (2026). MerQur: Integrated Academic Data Analysis & Reporting Platform [Computer software] (Version 1.0.0). https://doi.org/10.53463/merqur.2026001
For BibTeX, RIS, EndNote and the English citation form: all citation formats →
- American Psychological Association. (2020). Publication manual of the American Psychological Association (7th ed.).
- Field, A. (2018). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS Statistics (5th ed.). Sage.
- Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum.