ETS (Exponential Smoothing)
ETS (Exponential Smoothing) is one of the statistical analyses applied automatically in MerQur. This page illustrates — on a Education Sciences sample dataset — how the analysis is run, what the MerQur output looks like, and how the result is reported in APA 7 format.
🎯 What is it for?
ETS (Exponential Smoothing) automatically applies in the background all the assumption checks required for the relevant data type (normality, homogeneity of variance, etc.) and presents the results with a clear table and chart. Automatic interpretation to the APA 7 standard, effect sizes such as Cohen’s d/η²/R², and 95% confidence intervals are reported.
📌 When is it used?
- Statistical analysis of measurements in the Education Sciences domain
- To produce APA 7-compatible result tables for academic publications
- Hypothesis testing and decision-making processes
- Undergraduate / master’s / PhD theses after the appropriate method has been selected
📐 Assumptions
- Appropriate scale — Variables must be at the measurement level required by the analysis (nominal/ordinal/interval/ratio)
- Independent observations — Observations must come from individuals independent of one another
- Sufficient sample size — The minimum n requirement for the analysis must be met
- Outlier check — Outliers must be detected and evaluated
If assumptions are violated, MerQur automatically suggests a non-parametric or robust alternative.
🛠 How to do it in MerQur
Load the data. Select the sample file from File → Open. MerQur auto-detects column types.
Select the analysis. From the left side select ETS (Exponential Smoothing).
Panel assignments (form fields in the program):
- date_col:
tarih - Value Column:
aylik_basvuru - method:
holt-winters - seasonal:
additive - seasonal_periods:
12 - damped:
False - forecast_steps:
12
Optional settings. Effect size ✓ · 95% confidence interval ✓ · Assumption checks (automatic).
▶ Run — click the button. Results are produced automatically as a table + chart.
📄 Export to Word. APA 7-formatted report with italic statistical symbols.
📊 Sample Dataset — Education Sciences
ℹ Note: The scenario, MerQur output and interpretation below were produced by actually running the real example dataset in MerQur. Numeric results on your own data will differ; the goal is to show how the analysis is set up and interpreted end-to-end.
🎬 Example File
This analysis is demonstrated on the following example dataset for Education Sciences:
Egitim_Bilimleri/97_ets_monthly_application.xlsx
🎬 Scenario
Suppose the admissions office wants to anticipate the number of monthly applications for the next year. We have 84 months of application history, with each month’s date and its monthly_application total, and the data clearly shows a rising trend plus a strong yearly seasonal peak around application deadlines. We use Exponential Smoothing with the Holt-Winters method because it explicitly models level, trend, and seasonality, making it well suited for forecasting this kind of seasonal application series.
⚙️ Variable Selection
- Time index (date): date
- Series (value): monthly_application
Data Preview (First 5 Rows)
| date | monthly_application |
|---|---|
| 2018-01-01 00:00:00 | 2080 |
| 2018-02-01 00:00:00 | 2523 |
| 2018-03-01 00:00:00 | 3560 |
| 2018-04-01 00:00:00 | 5483 |
| 2018-05-01 00:00:00 | 6711 |
n = 84 · Columns: date, monthly_application
📈 MerQur Output
💬 Interpretation
Holt-Winters exponential smoothing estimates the level + trend + seasonality components in a weighted way (giving more weight to the recent past). It captured the seasonal pattern of monthly applications (AIC = 969). Applications typically show strong seasonality (registration periods); Holt-Winters is often very successful for such series and is more intuitive than ARIMA. In educational demand forecasting (applications, enrolment, attendance) it is an easy-to-build, interpretable alternative, especially preferred for regularly seasonally fluctuating variables.
⚠ Common Mistakes
- Misidentifying the data type (e.g., loading a categorical variable as numeric)
- Skipping assumption checks and going straight to the p-value
- Failing to report effect size — APA 7 requires both p and effect size
- Failing to apply a Type I error correction (Bonferroni/Tukey) in multiple comparisons
- Not switching to a non-parametric alternative when n is insufficient
📹 Video Walkthrough
Watch the video below for an end-to-end walkthrough of this analysis on a Education Sciences file.
▶ ETS (Exponential Smoothing) — video walkthrough
This section is part of the Zaman Serisi Analizi video (6 analyses in one video). The link below jumps straight to 5:06, where this analysis begins. Narration is in Turkish.
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📚 If You Used This Analysis, Cite MerQur
If you performed this analysis using MerQur in a scientific study, please use the citation below as part of your academic citation obligations (APA 7):
Örücü, Ö. K. (2026). MerQur: Integrated Academic Data Analysis & Reporting Platform [Computer software] (Version 1.0.0). https://doi.org/10.53463/merqur.2026001
For BibTeX, RIS, EndNote and the English citation form: all citation formats →
- American Psychological Association. (2020). Publication manual of the American Psychological Association (7th ed.).
- Field, A. (2018). Discovering statistics using IBM SPSS Statistics (5th ed.). Sage.
- Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum.